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What value firemen? (July 6, 2003)
Discussion ThreadPosted 10:37 p.m.,
July 6, 2003
(#1) -
Rob H
The going rate is about 1.85 million$ / marginal win, which works out to about 9 million $ / year.
Can you elaborate on this point? I would think for a team in contention the marginal value of a win is greater than average. Ugh, that means Jason Isringhausen might be worth close to what the Cardinals are paying him. That will teach me what happens when I pay attention to anything Chris Kahrl says about the Cardinals.
Cities with best players (October 23, 2003)
Posted 11:52 p.m.,
October 23, 2003
(#17) -
Rob H
Devin, my recollection is that the Virginia Squires played in three different cities, sorta like the Expos, but obviously their three cities (Norfolk, Hampton, Richmond) were a lot closer together. I rather like your top ten, although IMHO Isiah should not be in the top twenty.
BABIP and Speed (January 7, 2004)
Posted 12:42 p.m.,
January 8, 2004
(#7) -
Rob H
(homepage)
Whether there is anything extra beyond that, like an additional skill, needs to be looked at.
Maybe you know this already, but others looked at this already. See homepage for more. Bob Horner of all people was very good at ROE.
Baseball players sensing things are what they should be (February 2, 2004)
Posted 5:53 p.m.,
February 2, 2004
(#2) -
Rob H
Regarding hockey, I would guess the premiums are in fact too high. I do not follow the NHL closely though, and I suspect the NFL does not have these problems since so much of their money is non-guaranteed. Could be that the case with the NHL as well?
One thing about Albert Belle is that his injury was so unpredictable. I believe he had never been on the DL prior to his career-ending injury. The insurance companies probably have come to believe there was more risk (i.e., variance) than they previously had thought.
The thing I do not get is this: "Now, the clubs are anxious to create 'more' free agents because they realize the laws of supply and demand will cause prices to drop." How the heck is supply outpacing demand when a replacement is required for every player dumped?
The genius of Paul DePodesta (February 4, 2004)
Posted 6:26 p.m.,
February 6, 2004
(#20) -
Rob H
(homepage)
DePodesta's comment about meeting mgmt of some company and investing in them because "They're smart and the CEO's built like a Greek god!" reminded of something he said at BA (see homepage). The following quote sheds some more light on DePodesta's view of scouting:
For example, if an investment bank is going to invest a great deal of money in a particular company, it will not invest millions of dollars by just looking at the balance sheet and never meeting with the management. Conversely, it will not make the investment by just meeting the management and not checking the balance sheet. We’re all making million-dollar investments on these players. What we’re trying to do is get the most comprehensive picture we possibly can.
So, while DePodesta may denigrate some scouts, he almost certainly believes scouts can serve a useful purpose.
Aaron's Baseball Blog - Basketball (February 9, 2004)
Posted 1:30 p.m.,
February 9, 2004
(#5) -
Rob H
Can I assume that a missed field goal on a foul does not count as a field goal attempt if missed, but it does if they get the basket?
Yes. I do not understand the use of 0.75 in #1 above.
Looking at some other basketball stats this afternoon, I am convinced RPI stands for "We'll Screw Gonzaga" in some unknown foreign language. College basketball has a way's to go.
Aaron's Baseball Blog - Basketball (February 9, 2004)
Posted 6:34 p.m.,
February 9, 2004
(#25) -
Rob H
hmmm... Maybe we also want a shooting value above replacement metric:
Very much so, since it is easier for a player to shoot 50% on 10 FGA than on 20 FGA. And "replacement level" would be a team-influenced stat, since the worse your teammates are, the less discriminating you should be.
Aaron's Baseball Blog - Basketball (February 9, 2004)
Posted 1:27 a.m.,
February 11, 2004
(#52) -
Rob H
Kevin , I seem to remember Kareem throwing that over hand outlet pass to Magic an awful lot of the time.
Me too. I also remember Kareem was a much better player during his ten years in the league before Magic arrived than in the ten years after.
Baseball Prospectus - : Evaluating Defense (March 1, 2004)
Posted 5:56 p.m.,
March 2, 2004
(#29) -
Rob H
That's certainly quite a change in performance. I'll take a guess and say that it is statistically significant, but maybe someone else can chime in here.
Rolen *looked* off in 2003, at least compared to what he did in 2002. I know I had the same thoughts Tippett had about Rolen's injuries (shoulder in 2002 NLDS and neck midway through 2003 season) affecting his fielding.
And, yes, your comments are reasonable. Would anyone be surprised if the A's method for evaluating defense is very similar to MGL's?